Who Will Be the Most Hurt By a Recession?
THE BIG THING I WANT YOU TO KNOW:
If you’re a millennial, you’ll probably have forty plus years to recover from the next recession. But if you’re nearing retirement, you’ve likely got a lot riding on this bull market for your retirement money. What will happen to you when it crashes and how can you be prepared for a market drop?
Go hug your closest millennial today.
Take a look at the opening paragraph:
“The trade war is dragging on. The yield curve is inverting. Investors are fleeing to safety. Global growth is slowing. The stock market is dipping. The Millennials are screwed.”
Hide your kids! Hide your wife! Everything is going down! Take cover!
Like I’ve said before, any piece of data can be interpreted in multiple ways. In this opening paragraph, the author has stated that we’re diving headfirst into economic collapse and recession and millennials will be the most hard hit.
(I also learned in this article that I’m a millennial, so I will be destroyed if the market drops. If you’re in your mid to late thirties, friends, apparently you will be destroyed.)
I have a few problems with this…as you can imagine.
Let’s jump into this pending recession doomsday for millenials and unpack:
who will be most impacted by a recession in the market?
who actually has the most to GAIN from a recession?
and what all of us can do to be prepared for any volatility and still reach our goals for the future.
who will be most hurt by a recession?
if we have a recession, the most likely to be negatively impacted are those nearing retirement (NOT Millenials). I’ll Tell You Why…
That sixty-two year old doesn’t have access to safe money.
In the past if you were nearing retirement, maybe you would put money into things like bonds that would give you a good return, but you get a crap return right now because interest rates are so low.
A lot of people nearing retirement have edged closer into stocks because we’re sitting on the longest bull market and it feels good and the return is great — until it turns around, which it will.
Guess who’s the most impacted now? The person close to retirement who is hoping to retire on this money and has edged too far into stocks and sees their account drop. Now they don’t have time to make the money back.
And oh, because you have to pay them more for years of experience, they’re probably more likely to be let go from their jobs in case of recession.
It’s easier to hire young people, which BY THE WAY benefits millennials.
The group nearing retirement is the group we should be most worried about, not the group that has forty years left to recover from any sort of recession.
What this means is…
Millennials, you will be fine.
But parents of millenials, well, you might not be.
but friends, Zero people, I repeat, ZERO PEOPLE know when the market is going to tank, or a recession is going to happen, or even if a trade is going to increase or decrease the market.
Why in the world do we keep trying to predict the market and its impact?
Listen, we could have a recession tomorrow for none of the reasons mentioned in that opening paragraph, or for all of those reasons, or it could be six years from now. Yes, it is going to happen at some point — of course.
But when? It is so foolish to make predictions! And even more foolish to make changes to your financial plan based on predictions alone…
Let’s Look Back at How Awesome We Are At Predicting the Market
The yield curve inverted in 2016 (nerd alert) and apparently that’s a sign of recession, but did we collapse? Or was 2017 one of the best years of the market? The later.
When Trump was elected, the market was supposed to tank. Did that happen? No, it’s actually gone up!
So now, Is global growth slowing? Sure, there are signs of global issues, but isn’t it fascinating we just got reports on consumer spending last month and it was better than the month before which was better than the month before?
But apparently, we’re suddenly experts in prediction and it’s a GIVEN that we’re heading into a recession.
fact: could we be heading towards recession? Sure! Could we be heading back up? Sure!
your job is to be ready regardless. (Yes, it’s up to you.)
If you’re close to retirement: make sure you’ve looked at the risk you’re taking. Make sure you’ve gone through a financial planning process.
Look at your insurance, your investments, your estate planning, your taxes, your income planning, and even more to push you towards the retirement and the dreams that you want.
Make sure you have a plan that protects you. If the market goes up, you’re ready. Or if The Atlantic’s article is correct and we’re headed down, you’re ready for that too. : )
There are countless of these kinds of articles out there trying to scare you when the facts just aren’t there. No one can predict these things, period. But if you’ve got a plan, when the recession does come and when the market does drop, you can have peace knowing that you’re not about to lose it all.
A Personal Rant To Finish This Off
Can we get past this “the next generation sucks” thing??
I will admit that there have been points where I have jumped on the bandwagon of making fun of millennials, and apparently I’ve been making fun of myself, but I know a lot of really hard-working twenty and thirty-somethings.
I have a strange suspicion that this is a pattern. Maybe your grandparents said the same thing about your parents’ generation, and your parents said the same thing about your generation. It sure seems like it’s a normal thing to look at the next generation and think, “Well, things are going down. They don’t know how to work. I worked, I walked to school in the snow.” You know the bit.
There’s plenty of data that says millennials actually have their acts together more than we think.
A study was done by Bankrate that showed millennials are actually saving a higher percentage than any other generational group.
CNBC reported, 44% of millennials say they have an emergency fund that can cover at least three months of living expenses.
CNBC also reported, only 39% of Americans overall have enough savings to cover a $1000 emergency.
Let’s give millennials their due.
(Especially now that I realize that I am one.)
Where are You in Your Financial Confidence?
Maybe you’re a millennial and feeling awesome after reading this or a boomer feeling stressed — our team at Dynamic Money is here to answer any of your financial planning questions and give you an unbiased look at your entire financial picture and help you reach the goals you have for your life.
We create financial plans built to handle all of life’s ups and downs so you’re always on track. (BOOM! Take that market.)
When you’re ready, please say hello and reach out to start the conversation. Allow us the chance to look at your specific situation, understand your goals, and put you on a plan that offers you peace.
Don’t forget to text a millennial you love them. (Don’t call them, they hate that.)